Capital Preservation



As I have stressed for some time on this blog Capital Preservation in this environment is key. I wanted to post tonight because this is one of the last chances people are going to have to preserve capital. People should be using the market rally now to raise cash. Do NOT listen to these inflation biased analysts who are saying hyperinflation is coming because Ben Bernanke will just start up the printing press when a crisis hits. Inflationists do NOT understand the nature of our money. The reality is that the biggest margin call in history is about to beset us…and one of the only things that will be going up in value is what has been inflated into oblivion for the past 100 years: The U.S. Dollar. I am extremely bullish on the U.S. Dollar as I have illustrated before and if it has not made its bottom already it is close. The reason for the coming U.S. Dollar Bull Market is a shortage of Dollars, the opposite of what most think. Most people think there is a shortage of commodities and an overabundance of U.S. Dollars, when in fact it is the exact opposite. The reality is that there is virtually NO money in the system….just promises to pay money, courtesy of the banks. The private banking cartel is in complete control of our money supply and all but one ten-thousandth (that’s right, 1/10,000) of our money is debt. That little bit of money that is actual money consists of coins minted by the U.S. Treasury, as debt-free government issued money. All other money in the system is created as a LOAN; an interest-bearing debt…for which the interest cannot be paid. This will result in a credit implosion the likes of which we have never seen. This debt contraction creates an increased demand for dollars to satisfy debts, all the while the supply of dollars is diminishing due to contracting credit…this all has VERY Bullish implications for the U.S. Dollar…and very BEARISH implications for all dollar denominated assets….including Gold and Silver. In Elliott Wave terms, the world currencies are putting in supercycle tops…while the U.S. Dollar is putting in a supercycle bottom. From a cyclical standpoint, there are long-term cycles that are reversing now or in the near future…get ready for fireworks. The way to do that is to first get your money out of the big banks…they will fail in this next phase of the global credit crisis. This is already happening in Europe and will make its way around the world until there is virtually no credit left in the system…that is a long way down. The main point I want to stress, however, is that there is no reason anybody should be hurt by this credit implosion. Those who keep their wealth safe in the safest possible cash equivalents in the safest possible institutions and with the safest governments will come out the other end with all their wealth intact. Please read Bob Prechter’s 2002 Book, “Conquer the Crash: you can survive and prosper in a deflationary depression” and see the second half for how to keep your money safe. A safe alternative is opening an account with www.treasurydirect.gov and buying short-term only t-bills directly from the treasury. Time is running out and it appears as though the music is about to stop in this game of musical chairs….and as usual the most underprivileged will get hurt the most. But as we are seeing with the “Occupy Wall Street” rallies, people are catching on, and they are NOT happy campers. Social mood is worsening and will get much worse before the final bottom…which is why it is important to stay ahead of the curve and prepare for the collapse before it happens.

Markets setup for a fall…and possibly off a cliff



After covering shorts in the 590′s for the Russell 2000 – the 1080′s for the S&P500…we triggered short today and have very high quality fills near the highs…I am expecting this trade to be powerful. We sold the dollar for the dollar in the 80′s and now are long again in the 77.20′s…I expect that the dollar will regain those lost points much more violently than most would think and rush to new highs. So, additional to short triggers on the equity market…we got triggers long on the dollar…and now will likely get triggers short on Oil, Silver and Gold tonight or tomorrow…all in all, its the same story and same channel. People who were long got stopped out and went short…only to get hammered and highly leveraged on this current move…by now, many people are most likely flipped from short to long again and on all out leverage in order to try to overcome the losses on at least four failed momentum swing trades. THIS IS WHY I do not trade momentum or breakout trading…it just does not work over all. If you only trade at extremes you are much better off.

In any case, today we broke out over resistance on the S&P500, which for all intents and purposes looked like a clean breakout, took out stops and got people really convinced that they needed to be long. – the reality is that the breakout failed, as usual and we closed under resistance. While this rally has gone higher than I expected, it has tested and slightly overshot the resistance zone…and I believe that people are unprepared for what is about to befall them. I do not think people will get the chance to get in or to get out in a satisfactory way and that will cause quite a bit of volatility in our already leverage junkie markets.

The EURO has additionally, convinced participants – especially apparently Goldman Sachs clients, that it will be saved and is going to be fine…as I have said before, in today’s markets the goal needs to be to short the shorts. When shorts capitulate – SHORT! That appears to be what we have now.

State Of The Markets



This market has had quite a decline since the May 2 high- 21.58%. That was enough to get CNBC to call it a “bear market”- as they define a bear market as any decline over 20%. So what happened? As usual when CNBC makes a call the market does the opposite. They weren’t talking about a “bear market” with the SPX at 1370 in May. They were talking about the “good news” that Osama Bin Laden had been captured. Now they are negative because the market declined 20%, so the market did what it usually does when CNBC gets bearish: Reverse hard to the upside. The market formed an Ending Diagonal into the SPX 1074.77 low and staged a major reversal to the upside- as ending diagonals are supposed to, with a “throw-over” of the lower trendline, as illustrated below.

Now that the market has staged a major rally, the question is, what’s next? I have plotted some Fibonacci resistance levels that should provide resistance. If this rally is corrective in nature, then it is most likely wave 2 up of the next major leg of this Bear Market. However, if the market starts impulsing to the upside. Then this market is set to take out the 1370 highs of May 2011. As I have emphasized before, however, it doesn’t matter so much whether the rally is over or not. It matter that people get positioned for the long run trend of this market, which is DOWN. That means finding the safest possible cash equivalents and staying OUT of ALL traditional investments- Yes that includes Gold and Silver…This Bear Market could very well trump the 1929-1932 collapse…because the situation is much bigger this time….not to mention the fraud is on a MUCH more massive, scale….around the world. Read more